​Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates: India’s Balancing Act, America’s Intentions, and the Historical Roots

The world’s eyes are on West Asia right now, where tensions between Israel and Iran have erupted into open conflict, shaking global markets and geopolitics. Since Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on June 13, 2025, the two nations have traded missile strikes, killing over 220 people and raising fears of a broader war. For India, this is a diplomatic tightrope, with economic and strategic stakes at risk. The U.S. is deeply involved, backing Israel while weighing its own moves. To understand this mess, let’s dive into the latest developments, India’s stance, America’s intentions, and the historical and geopolitical roots of the Israel-Iran feud, like we’re unpacking it over a cup of chai.

The Latest Flare-Up: A War Unfolds

On June 13, Israel launched “Operation Rising Lion,” targeting Iran’s military and nuclear sites, including missile bases, a gas field, and the Isfahan uranium conversion facility. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “preemptive strike” to thwart Iran’s alleged nuclear weapon ambitions, claiming Iranian scientists were “months away” from a bomb. The attack killed at least 80 people, including Iranian nuclear scientists, military commanders, and civilians, with Tehran reporting damage to four key buildings at Isfahan. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones on Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing 13 and injuring dozens. By June 19, the conflict entered its sixth day, with Israel claiming to have hit 40 sites in Iran, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “severe punishment.”

Netanyahu has suggested the war could end only with Khamenei’s death, while Iran declared a state of emergency. Israel’s strikes also hit civilian infrastructure, like a TV station during a live broadcast, sparking global outrage. Iran warned the U.S., UK, and France that their bases would be targeted if they aided Israel’s defense, and U.S. air systems reportedly helped shoot down Iranian missiles on June 13. The conflict, rooted in decades of animosity, is now direct, moving beyond proxy wars through groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

Historical Roots: From Allies to Enemies

Israel and Iran weren’t always foes. Under the Shah’s rule (1941-1979), they were allies, sharing intelligence and trade, with Iran supplying oil to Israel. The 1979 Islamic Revolution changed everything, bringing a theocratic regime under Ayatollah Khomeini that saw Israel as an imperialist outpost. Iran’s support for anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah (founded 1982) and Hamas deepened the rift. Israel, backed by the U.S., grew wary of Iran’s regional ambitions, especially its nuclear program, which began in the 1950s but raised alarms by the 2000s over potential weaponization.

Key flashpoints include Israel’s alleged assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists (2010-2020), the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and Israel’s 2024 strikes on Iranian targets in Syria and Lebanon. Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in April and September 2024, retaliating for assassinations, marked the first direct clashes. The current war, triggered by Israel’s June 13 strikes, is the most intense yet, fueled by Iran’s nuclear advances and Israel’s fear of a nuclear-armed rival.

Geopolitical Drivers: Power, Proxies, and Nukes

The Israel-Iran conflict is a struggle for regional dominance. Iran, a Shia-majority nation, seeks influence through its “Axis of Resistance”—Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen’s Houthis—challenging Israel and Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia. Israel, with advanced U.S.-backed military tech, aims to maintain its edge, viewing Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. The June 12, 2025, IAEA report citing Iran’s past NPT violations (until the early 2000s) gave Israel a pretext for its “preemptive” strike, though no evidence supports claims of an imminent nuclear bomb.

Oil and trade routes are also at stake. Iran’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, gives it leverage. Israel’s strikes on Iranian oil facilities risk spiking prices, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (linked to Iran) disrupt trade routes vital for 80% of India’s exports to Europe. China’s growing ties with Iran, including the 2023 Saudi-Iran peace deal, add complexity, challenging U.S. and Israeli influence.

America’s Intentions: Support Israel, Avoid All-Out War

The U.S. is Israel’s staunchest ally, providing $3.8 billion in annual military aid and advanced defense systems like THAAD. On June 13, U.S. air defenses reportedly aided Israel against Iranian missiles, though President Donald Trump, re-elected in 2024, has not committed to direct military involvement. Trump’s rhetoric is hawkish, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatening to “blow up all the nuclear stuff” if Iran doesn’t comply. Yet, he’s signaled openness to a new nuclear deal, wary of being dragged into a costly war before his January 2025 inauguration.

U.S. motives are twofold: curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and maintain regional dominance. Western nations see Iran as a global threat due to its support for militants, and many are content to let Israel lead the fight while supplying intelligence and arms. However, divisions among Republicans—hawks like Lindsey Graham push for U.S. strikes, while “America First” voices like Tucker Carlson urge restraint—complicate Trump’s stance. The U.S. has deployed B-2 bombers and troops to the region but views its bunker-buster bombs as a deterrent, not a tool to escalate.

India’s Stand: Neutrality and Strategic Autonomy

India’s walking a diplomatic tightrope, balancing ties with Israel and Iran. With Israel, India shares robust defense ties, importing drones and missile systems, and collaborates on counter-terrorism. With Iran, historical and energy links are key—India relies on West Asian oil (over 80% of imports), including from Iran before U.S. sanctions halted imports in 2019. India’s ₹1,000 crore investment in Chabahar Port, a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan, hinges on Iran’s stability.

New Delhi has stayed neutral, refusing to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) condemnation of Israel’s strikes, led by Russia and China. PM Narendra Modi, speaking in Cyprus, reiterated India’s call for dialogue and diplomacy, saying “this is not an age of war.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs has urged peaceful resolution, reflecting its policy of strategic autonomy—avoiding alignment with any side to protect defense, energy, and trade interests. With 18,000 Indians in Israel and 10,000 in Iran, New Delhi is also prioritizing citizen safety.

The conflict’s economic toll worries India. Oil prices have spiked 7%, threatening inflation (recently at a 75-month low of 2.82%) and India’s current account deficit. Trade disruptions, like Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, hit 34% of India’s exports to Europe and the U.S., while Basmati rice exports to Iran, a key buyer, are declining. The Sensex dropped 573 points on June 13, though experts predict markets may stabilize if the war doesn’t widen. India’s monitoring Chabahar and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), both at risk if Iran weakens.

What’s Next?

The Israel-Iran war shows no signs of slowing, with both sides ignoring global calls for restraint. Israel’s targeting of Iranian leaders and infrastructure aims to weaken Tehran, but critics argue it’s more about regime change than nuclear prevention. Iran’s retaliatory strikes, though less precise, signal resilience despite economic strain from sanctions. The U.S. may escalate if Iran targets its bases, but Trump’s focus on a nuclear deal suggests caution. For India, a prolonged conflict could spike oil prices, disrupt trade, and delay projects like Chabahar, forcing tougher diplomatic choices.

This war, rooted in decades of mistrust, is a geopolitical powder keg. As someone piecing this together, it’s clear the stakes are high—lives, economies, and global stability hang in the balance. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail, but for now, the world watches anxiously.